Refining the Classes Model for NCAAF
All, I just recently made an important adjustment to my Classes Model for NCAAF, and I wanted to walk you through the full reasoning behind it.
For a long time, I used a simple structure: A Class = teams ranked 1–30. The problem is that this range was too wide. After digging deeper, I found that many of the very top programs consistently win by double digits, while the lower end of that group doesn’t dominate nearly as much.
Take a look at this chart showing last year’s win records and average margins of victory for the top teams:
As you can see, the elite teams aren’t just winning — they’re covering by large margins. That gap is big enough that lumping all 1–30 teams together into a single “A Class” was creating inefficiencies in the model.
The same issue exists on the other end of the spectrum. I needed a clear separation between standard “D Class” teams and the truly bad programs that consistently lose by double digits (and in some cases, by more than 3 TDs). (3rd column)
Practical Application
So what does this adjustment mean in practice?
One clear example: Auburn played Baylor in week 1.
Under the old Classes Model (A = 1–30), both would have been A Class.
With the new adjustment, Auburn remains A, but Baylor shifts down into B.
The model gave Auburn as a play — and they went on to win and cover 38–24
Another example is at the bottom. In the old setup, teams like Charlotte and Akron graded as D Class. Under the new adjustment (E Class = Rank 110 or higher), both are moved into E.
Per the model rules, we fade E Class teams up to -20.5. Both Charlotte and Akron lost outright, which means both games would have been winning plays.
Why This Matters
Just by making this adjustment, we:
Converted two previous losses into wins.
Turned what was a no-play into another win.
Increased accuracy in separating elite A teams from fringe A teams.
Sharpened the edge against bottom-tier programs.
This refinement is small on paper, but in execution, it makes the Classes Model more precise and more profitable.